TEForecast On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.36 percent, after increasing 0.85 percent in the prior month.The annual inflation rate in Turkey dropped to 10.94 percent in April 2020 from 11.86 percent in the previous month but above market expectations of 10.88 percent.
Inflation Rate YoY The looming reversal in inflation could, however, put in doubt further monetary easing at this year’s final meeting next month.The lira gained 0.2% against the dollar on Monday, appreciating for a second day. Gain a global perspective on the US and go beyond with curated news and analysis from 600 Turkey's consumer price index fell 1.44 percent month-on-month in November, official data showed on Monday, bringing the annual inflation rate down from a 15-year high … Others include: furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance (8 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (7.5 percent); clothing and footwear (7.4 percent); alcoholic beverages and tobacco (5 percent). © 2020 SAUDI RESEARCH & PUBLISHING COMPANY, All Rights Reserved And subject to Terms of Use Agreement. Turkey also has a serious inflation problem. “Orderly” moves in Turkey’s currency against the dollar could even push inflation toward 8% under its model, but “risks are actually more skewed towards higher inflation figures,” Goldman Sachs economists including Kevin Daly said in a note.“The authorities are prioritizing growth over disinflation, creating risks for the lira,” the Goldman economists said. Turkey saw a stronger-than-expected rise in inflation in October, with prices rising 25.2 percent year-on-year, marking the highest inflation rate in 15 years. ANKARA: Inflation in Turkey dropped for the first time to nearly 22 percent last month after surging to a 15-year high in October, official statistics showed on Monday. Cost rose at a faster pace for food & non-alcoholic beverages (12.93 percent vs 12.87 percent), transportation (10.96 percent vs 6.69 percent), housing & utilities (14.95 percent vs 14.45 percent), hotels, cafes & restaurants (11.13 percent vs 10.94 percent), clothing & footwear (10.66 percent vs 7.68 percent), and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (22.41 percent vs 21.41 percent). Turkish inflation has risen to new highs, driven by cheap credit. The figure was more than 25% in October. “Going forward, we expect inflation to start rising once again as base effects become less pronounced.”Updates with lira’s performance in sixth paragraph. Getty. “Yet, the main driver of the decision should be the lira’s performance in the next five weeks.”A period of acceleration in prices will continue through the first quarter, according to Governor Murat Uysal.
Meanwhile, miscellaneous goods & services inflation picked up to 21.90 percent from 19.80 percent.Turkey's consumer price inflation rate rose to 12.62 percent year-on-year in June 2020, the highest since August 2019 and above market expectations of 12.09 percent, as the economy re-opened from the coronavirus-induced restriction measures. Inflation Rate YoY Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, declined to 9.93 percent from a seven-month high of 11.65 percent in March. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, rose to 10.3 percent from 9.93 percent in April. Cost advanced faster for food, beverages & tobacco (12.87 percent vs 11.28 percent in April) and transportation (6.69 percent vs 5.54 percent) while prices of housing & utilities eased (14.45 percent vs 14.52 percent). Inflation Rate YoY Turkey’s core problem is that the government keeps trying to stimulate the economy even as higher inflation suggests it should be doing the opposite. Globally, it’s the leading known cause of premature death through stroke, heart disease and chronic kidney disease. In its quarterly report last week, the central bank lowered its inflation estimate for the end of 2019 to 12%, from 13.9%.Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said on Thursday that he estimates Turkish inflation slowed to around 8% in October and pledged a permanent drop to single digits starting from next year.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects price growth to end the year at 11% and then stabilize around 10% in the long run. Inflation Rate YoY After six straight months of undershooting estimates, the result matched the median in a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists.Turkish rates are among the highest when adjusted for inflationReal rates are calculated using the year-over-year change in the headline figure for consumer prices.“We expect inflation to rise to double digits again in November due to the reversal of base effects in November and December,” Nihan Ziya Erdem, chief economist at Garanti Securities, said before the data release.Still helped along by a more stable lira and weak demand after a recession, the deceleration is losing momentum as the statistical effect of a high base of comparison after last year’s price spike is starting to wear off.Boasting among the highest real borrowing costs in emerging markets, Turkey’s central bank is coming off three rounds of interest-rate cuts totaling 10 percentage points that brought its benchmark to 14%.
The inflation rate is based upon the consumer price index (CPI). Turkey is now stretching the limit of acceptable rates of inflation for a responsible, emerging-market economy. It is clear that Turkey’s number one problem is inflation. Inflation Rate YoY
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