Statistics South Africa said the decline in GDP was led by agriculture production that fell by 29,2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, following a 33,6 percent plunge in the first quarter. Business Unity put the cost per job investment at R660,000.00 and the IMF put the figure at R420,000.00 per job in the USA.According to the latest data 17,000,000 are unemployed meaning R8,500,000,000,000.00 (R8.5 Trillion) plus additional Trillion investment is required.The debt clock ticking up at R6,750.00 per second, whilst murder rate is 2 people per hour. Other than in the Western Cape, municipalities are failing miserably
JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's economy experienced its first technical recession since 2009 after gross domestic product contracted 0.7 percent in the second quarter.Cisco tumbles after weak forecast shows recession bitingPlease visit the official Government information portal for Coronavirus by clicking If the impact on employment mirrors this trend on economic growth then as many as 4 million jobs may be lost in the coming years.”What an absolute pipe dream of a model was used here.I have a better chance of being right by sucking numbers out of my thumb than looking at this model that predicts only -5.8% and 4 million job losses over the coming years.Before 2020 arrived South Africa already had the issue of its population growing faster than the economy and now with all the decisions being made by the ANC we have seen the economy absolutely obliterated and sectors such as hospitality and tourism could take many years, maybe even a decade to recover to its former self.
Employment hit its lowest level since Q3 2008 in Q3 2010, two years after the start of the Global Financial Crisis. This means that the recession was triggered at the end of Q3 2008, hence the full impact was only felt in 2009. Nature uses the tool of famine to solve the problems that were created by politicians and that Reserve Banks fail to cure. Once again South Africa appears to be one of the hardest hit developing economies. If the impact on employment mirrors this trend on economic growth then as many as 4 million jobs may be lost in the coming years.The rate at which jobs were lost as a result of the Global Financial Crisis should prepare us for a similar delayed reaction in terms of the poor economic state translating into job losses.We can expect the peak of job losses to be two years from now and that the economy will take more than four years to recover.Unfortunately the worst is yet to come in terms of unemployment as the poor economic conditions continue to erode business’ ability to survive. Although the reason for the global recessions differ, the outcome of the 2008 global recession should be investigated to see what South Africa can expect from this global recession. The narrative that the current Corona virus pandemic is unchartered territory that has not been seen since the Spanish Flu of 1918, has been at the heart of the economic uncertainty around the world.Considering that this point of reference is a little over 100 years ago and the world has changed significantly since then, this pandemic cannot be accurately referenced when seeking solutions to the economic impact of Covid-19. The economy went into recession in 2008/09 for the first time in 19 years. The only bright spark in the data was a recovery from the mining sector. A V-shaped recovery is NOT happening this year folks. Lockdown is an act by politicians to create a market for themselves by destroying the entrepreneurs on whom they depend to fund their own existence. Le pays avait enregistré sa première récession post-1994 lors de la crise mondiale de 2008-2009. – Jack Nicholson.The outlook in terms of modern economic wave theory and the Austrian business cycle theory, predict the pattern of fallout after economic catastrophe with at least 3 waves to the recovery.The COVID curve breakers that have rolled over us, or are set to roll over us I call Groundswells, Reefswells and Rogueswells. Learnings from the global financial crisis show the job loss peak may only be two years from now … we can plan to mitigate the negative effects now. The South African economy has gone into recession for the first time since 1992, following a sharp slowdown in the manufacturing and mining sectors. Between the start of the Global financial Crisis and Q3 2010, approximately one million South African jobs were lost.This means that the decrease in employment took two years before the economy had recovered sufficiently to begin recovering jobs that were lost.The loss of jobs also took approximately a year after the crisis before the largest drop in employment in a single quarter occurred in Q3 2009 (527 000 jobs were lost).The full impact of the global economic recession is yet to be realised but based on the current economic data and the Global Financial Crisis’ economic data, we can forecast what is to be expected.South Africa tends to be one of the hardest hit economies during difficult global economic conditions.In 2009, South Africa’s economy contracted by -1.5% while the average growth for developing economies was 2.8% (IMF). The number of countries in recession was 37 in Q2‑2009, 13 in Q3‑2009 and 11 in Q4‑2009. One year before the maximum, in Q1-2008, only six countries were in recession (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). One year after the maximum, in Q1‑2010, only seven countries were in recession (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize). If SA's growth contracts at the level the IMF expects, as many as 4 million jobs may be lost in the coming years. The number of countries in recession was 25 in Q2‑2008, 39 in Q3‑2008 and 53 in Q4‑2008. The size of the population will have to shrink to find equilibrium with entrepreneurial activity like it did after the Xhosa Cattle Killings.Or a great deal of wealth will be destroyed and not as many lives as folk give what they have to help their neighbours“If SA does contract at the level that the IMF anticipates (-5.8%) then this recession will be approximately four times deeper than the recession of 2009.
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