Far more severe than what we have seen today. For the first time in almost three decades, Australia is in a recession, the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg confirmed on Wednesday. He told SBS News the government’s predictions of an up to 10 per cent negative growth may be pessimistic, but he would expect a figure closer to negative seven or eight per cent.Despite its negative growth figures, Australia is actually faring relatively well compared to the rest of the world and especially compared to other developed countries.Mr Haslem says the reason Australia's economy is the “envy of the world” is largely because it was in a strong fiscal position to begin with at the start of the pandemic.“It’s 30 years since our last recession, that obviously means we’ve had a good growth experience, we have a good fiscal position," he said.
He said there was not much the government could have done to avoid this recession.“There was no way to avoid it. And as each year passes without a recession, the probability of a recession occurring increases. Why there has been no recession for 28 years. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says Australia is in recession after the economy was battered by bushfires and the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic to shrink by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, the first quarter of negative growth in nine years.The popular definition of a recession is consecutive negative quarters of growth, and economists, the Treasury and the RBA are all resigned to the June quarter showing the economy experiencing its worst three-month period since the 1930s.The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday said a collapse in consumer spending on services and falls in government capital expenditure and household construction contributed to the March quarter result.The negative quarter is only the fourth time this century the economy has gone backward in a three-month period. A desperate West Australians looking for a job in during thelast recession. All this has led to a pretty good COVID-19 experience for Australia, led by shutting things down quickly.” John Hawkins is assistant professor of politics, economics and society at the University of Canberra. "This was the slowest through-the-year growth since September 2009 when Australia was in the midst of the global financial crisis and captures just the beginning of the expected economic effects of COVID-19," he said.All of the nation's major bank economists had been expecting a fall in GDP through the March quarter.National Australia Bank forecast minus 0.1 per cent, ANZ predicted minus 0.2 per cent, Commonwealth Bank and AMP believed it would be minus 0.3 per cent while Westpac tipped minus 0.4 per cent.The household saving ratio increased to 5.5 per cent, reflecting a lift in gross disposable income and a fall in consumption.The increase in income was due to a 6.2 per cent jump in social assistance benefits such as JobSeeker and help to fire-affected communities.Of the states and territories, NSW suffered the biggest hit during the quarter with state final demand down by 1.5 per cent.Final demand also fell in Victoria (minus 0.1 per cent), South Australia (minus 1 per cent) and the Northern Territory (minus 1.2 per cent).It lifted in Western Australia by 0.9 per cent, by 0.6 per cent in Queensland and by 2.1 per cent in the ACT.The last time Australia's national accounts showed a contraction in economic growth was in March 2011.On that occasion, the original report from the bureau showed a 1.2 per cent drop, due largely to cyclones that disrupted mining production across Queensland and Western Australia. Scott Haslem is chief investment officer at Crestone Wealth Management in Sydney. Not since a previous treasurer, Paul Keating, declared in 1990 that Australians were experiencing “the recession we had to have” has the economic forecast looked so glum. A depression, he says, is when you also lose your own.“Some people will lose hours and lose their job, that’s going to be the impact on many people," he said. There isn’t much to be done to react in the March quarter. The recession of 1973 through 1975, was due to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) who rose gas prices and imposed an embargo against the United States. Australia has entered its first recession in 29 years, with gross domestic product in the March quarter down 0.3 per cent.. Watch the video above . At the time the recession of 1973-75 was considered a severe recession. “Your average person knows more unemployed people in a recession,” he said. Please select the editions you would like to sign up toFigures released on Wednesday for the January to March quarter show Australia’s GDP falling into negative territory, meaning the country is now in a recession. Grundlage sind die Top 50 der australischen Charts der ARIA. Credit: The West Australian. The last recession was in 1990-91.Mr Frydenberg conceded the country is in recession "on the basis of the advice that I have from the Treasury Department about where the June quarter is expected to be".He said the next quarter figures will more fully reflect the coronavirus pandemic and associated shutdowns, which began in Australia in March. "Wage growth is going to be sluggish too, without competition to find people, you aren’t going to see any upward pressure on wages for a long time.”Mr Haslem agrees.
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