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Qualitative gaps in the distribution of adaptation finance, readiness to absorb resources, and monitoring mechanisms undermine the potential of adaptation finance to reduce impacts. Our understanding of the links of 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming to human migration are limited and represent an important knowledge gap. {4.3.2, 4.5.3}, Changing agricultural practices can be an effective climate adaptation strategy. For periods shorter than 30 years, warming refers to the estimated average temperature over the 30 years centred on that shorter period, accounting for the impact of any temperature fluctuations or trend within those 30 years. Many examples of synergies and trade-offs exist in all sectors and system transitions. Some pathways rely more on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), while others rely more on afforestation, which are the two CDR methods most often included in integrated pathways. Improving irrigation efficiency could effectively deal with changing global water endowments, especially if achieved via farmers adopting new behaviours and water- efficient practices rather than through large-scale infrastructural interventions (medium evidence, medium agreement). Those 1.5°C pathways typically rely on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation (AR), or both, to neutralize emissions that are expensive to avoid, or to draw down CO2 emissions in excess of the carbon budget {Chapter 2}. Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in frequency but with an increase in the number of very intense cyclones (limited evidence, low confidence). Compared with non-active commuters, walking commuters had higher physical activity but not cardiorespiratory fitness. Over the follow-up period, a total of 2430 participants died (496 related to CVD and 1126 related to cancer); 1110 had incident CVD and 3748 cancer. This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. {2.2.2, 2.3.5}, Non-CO2 emissions contribute to peak warming and thus affect the remaining carbon budget. Human exposure to increased flooding is projected to be substantially lower at 1.5°C compared to 2°C of global warming, although projected changes create regionally differentiated risks (medium confidence). Since 2000, the estimated level of human-induced warming has been equal to the level of observed warming with a likely range of ±20% accounting for uncertainty due to contributions from solar and volcanic activity over the historical period (high confidence). {3.3.6, 3.4.4.12, 3.4.9.1, Box 3.4}, Small Islands, and Coastal and Low-lying areas, Small islands are projected to experience multiple inter- related risks at 1.5°C of global warming that will increase with warming of 2°C and higher levels (high confidence). 2000. These uncertainties include: technological immaturity; limited physical understanding about their effectiveness to limit global warming; and a weak capacity to govern, legitimize, and scale such measures. Projected GMSLR for 1.5°C of global warming has an indicative range of 0.26 – 0.77m, relative to 1986–2005, (medium confidence). Outmigration in agricultural- dependent communities is positively and statistically significantly associated with global temperature (medium confidence). Other things being equal, modelling studies suggest the global average discounted marginal abatement costs for limiting warming to 1.5°C being about 3–4 times higher compared to 2°C over the 21st century, with large variations across models and socio-economic and policy assumptions. This chapter takes sustainable development as the starting point and focus for analysis. Even in the uncertain case that the most adverse side-effects of SRM can be avoided, public resistance, ethical concerns and potential impacts on sustainable development could render SRM economically, socially and institutionally undesirable (low agreement, medium evidence). How can different actors and processes in climate governance reinforce each other, and hedge against the fragmentation of initiatives? {3.5} Global warming has already affected tourism, with increased risks projected under 1.5°C of warming in specific geographic regions and for seasonal tourism including sun, beach and snow sports destinations (very high confidence). Ethical approval: UK Biobank received ethical approval from the North West Multi-centre Research Ethics Committee (REC reference: 11/NW/03820). {2.2.2, 2.3.1, 2.4.2, 2.5.3}Â, All analysed pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot use CDR to some extent to neutralize emissions from sources for which no mitigation measures have been identified and, in most cases, also to achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5°C following a peak (high confidence). Hold dig opdateret. The median follow-up period was 5.0 years (interquartile range 4.3-5.5 years) for all cause, CVD, and cancer mortality and 2.1 (1.4-2.8) years for incident CVD and cancer. This chapter builds on findings of AR5 and assesses new scientific evidence of changes in the climate system and the associated impacts on natural and human systems, with a specific focus on the magnitude and pattern of risks linked for global warming of 1.5°C above temperatures in the pre-industrial period. Details of measurement of these covariates are described in the supplementary materials and elsewhere.1820 The proportional hazard assumption was checked by tests based on Schoenfeld residuals. {3.5.2, 3.5.3} The largest reductions in economic growth at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of warming are projected for low- and middle-income countries and regions (the African continent, Southeast Asia, India, Brazil and Mexico) (low to medium confidence). Funding: The UK Biobank was supported by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Department of Health, Scottish government, and Northwest Regional Development Agency. But, embedded in consistent policy packages, they can help mobilize incremental resources and provide flexible mechanisms that help reduce the social and economic costs of the triggering phase of the transition (robust evidence, medium agreement). Alterations of agriculture and forest systems to achieve mitigation goals could affect current ecosystems and their services and potentially threaten food, water and livelihood security. a Compétitions nationales et continentales officielles uniquement. Sie haben bei Ihrer Bestellung eine E-Mail-Adresse angegeben? The remaining carbon budget is defined here as cumulative CO2 emissions from the start of 2018 until the time of net zero global emissions for global warming defined as a change in global near-surface air temperatures. Data sharing: Researchers can apply to use the UK Biobank resource and access the data used. But any feasible pathway that remains within 1.5°C involves synergies and trade-offs (high confidence). This contrasts with median estimates for current unconditional NDCs of 52–58 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2030. {1.1, Cross-Chapter Box 1}. Objective To investigate the association between active commuting and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and all cause mortality. {5.5.3, 5.6.4, Box 5.3} Re-examining individual and collective values could help spur urgent, ambitious and cooperative change (medium evidence, high agreement). The association between active commuting and health outcomes (all cause, CVD, and cancer mortality; incident CVD and cancer) was explored using Cox proportional hazard models, excluding participants with prevalent CVD and cancer at baseline from the CVD and cancer models, respectively. Other ecosystems (e.g., kelp forests, coral reefs) are relatively less able to move, however, and are projected to experience high rates of mortality and loss (very high confidence). Chapter 3 explores observed impacts and projected risks to a range of natural and human systems, with a focus on how risk levels change from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. {2.2.2, 2.3.1, 2.3.5, 2.5.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 4}. The number of exceptionally hot days are expected to increase the most in the tropics, where interannual temperature variability is lowest; extreme heatwaves are thus projected to emerge earliest in these regions, and they are expected to already become widespread there at 1.5°C global warming (high confidence). From 2020 to 2050 the primary energy supplied by oil declines in most pathways (−39 to −77% interquartile range). {3.3.3, 3.3.4, Box 3.1, Box 3.2}, Risks to natural and human systems are expected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 2°C of global warming (high confidence). Sociodemographic factors (sex, age, deprivation index, and ethnicity) smoking status, body mass index, leisure time, occupational and DIY physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and dietary intake were treated as potential confounders, as were a range of prevalent chronic diseases at baseline, in models that included participants with these conditions. Warming of 1.5°C is not considered ‘safe’ for most nations, communities, ecosystems and sectors and poses significant risks to natural and human systems as compared to the current warming of 1°C (high confidence). Lifestyle choices lowering energy demand and the land- and GHG-intensity of food consumption can further support achievement of 1.5°C pathways (high confidence). {2.2, 2.3.3, 2.3.5, 2.5.3, Cross-Chapter Boxes 6 in Chapter 3 and 9 in Chapter 4, 4.3.7}. This could be achieved through sharing efforts based on bolder and more committed cooperation, with support for those with the least capacity to adapt, mitigate and transform (medium evidence, high agreement). Individual mitigation options are associated with both positive and negative interactions with the SDGs (very high confidence). Localized subsidence and changes to river discharge can potentially exacerbate these effects. Une irritation est fréquente et normale en début de traitement : ne vous découragez pas, mais n'hésitez pas à prendre l'avis de votre pharmacien. Ill-designed responses, however, could pose challenges especially – but not exclusively – for countries and regions contending with poverty and those requiring significant transformation of their energy systems. The findings, if causal, suggest population health may be improved by policies that increase active commuting, particularly cycling, such as the creation of cycle lanes, cycle hire or purchase schemes, and better provision for cycles on public transport. Blue, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. 1.5°C implies very ambitious, internationally cooperative policy environments that transform both supply and demand (high confidence). Physical activity is declining worldwide, partly owing to reductions in active commuting (walking or cycling).12 Active commuting has been recommended as a practical way of incorporating more physical activity into daily life.3456 A meta-analysis of 173 146 participants reported that active commuting was associated with a lower risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, especially for women.7 However, the work was limited by a heterogeneous range of cardiometabolic endpoints (including hypertension, diabetes, stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease (CVD)), inconsistent adjustment for confounders, and no differentiation between walking and cycling. Such transitions could, however, carry consequences for livelihoods that depend on agriculture and natural resources {4.3.2, Cross- Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 3}. Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C (likely between 0.8°C and 1.2°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade (high confidence). Conclusions Cycle commuting was associated with a lower risk of CVD, cancer, and all cause mortality. Mitigation and Adaptation Options and Other Measures, A mix of mitigation and adaptation options implemented in a participatory and integrated manner can enable rapid, systemic transitions – in urban and rural areas – that are necessary elements of an accelerated transition consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. {3.3.2, 3.4.3, 3.4.4}, Ocean ecosystems are already experiencing large-scale changes, and critical thresholds are expected to be reached at 1.5°C and higher levels of global warming (high confidence). Limiting warming to 1.5°C can be achieved synergistically with poverty alleviation and improved energy security and can provide large public health benefits through improved air quality, preventing millions of premature deaths. These estimates come with an additional geophysical uncertainty of at least ±400 GtCO2, related to non-CO2 response and TCRE distribution. Such mitigation pathways are characterized by energy-demand reductions, decarbonization of electricity and other fuels, electrification of energy end use, deep reductions in agricultural emissions, and some form of CDR with carbon storage on land or sequestration in geological reservoirs. Subnational jurisdictions and entities, including urban and rural municipalities, are key to developing and reinforcing measures for reducing weather- and climate-related risks. The energy requirements and economic costs of direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and enhanced weathering remain high (medium evidence, medium agreement).At the local scale, soil carbon sequestration has co-benefits with agriculture and is cost-effective even without climate policy (high confidence). Changes include increases in both land and ocean temperatures, as well as more frequent heatwaves in most land regions (high confidence). Contributors: CACM, JPP, NS, and JMRG contributed to the conception and design of the study, advised on all statistical aspects, and interpreted the data. However, public, financial, institutional and innovation capabilities currently fall short of implementing far-reaching measures at scale in all countries (high confidence). Social innovation through bottom-up initiatives can result in greater participation in the governance of systems transitions and increase support for technologies, practices and policies that are part of the global response to limit warming to 1.5°C . Robust physical understanding underpins this relationship, but uncertainties become increasingly relevant as a specific temperature limit is approached. {2.3, 2.5} What are the associated knowledge gaps? Future economic and trade environments and their response to changing food availability (medium confidence) are important potential adaptation options for reducing hunger risk in low- and middle-income countries. Impacts avoided with the lower temperature limit could reduce the number of people exposed to climate risks and vulnerable to poverty by 62 to 457 million, and lessen the risks of poor people to experience food and water insecurity, adverse health impacts, and economic losses, particularly in regions that already face development challenges (medium evidence, medium agreement). Under emissions in line with current pledges under the Paris Agreement (known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), global warming is expected to surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, even if these pledges are supplemented with very challenging increases in the scale and ambition of mitigation after 2030 (high confidence). Various mitigation options are expanding rapidly across many geographies. Report of a WHO consultation. Disaster risk management and education-based adaptation have lower prospects of scalability and cost-effectiveness (medium evidence, high agreement) but are critical for building adaptive capacity. Pathways compatible with 1.5°C that feature low energy demand show the most pronounced synergies and the lowest number of trade-offs with respect to sustainable development and the SDGs (very high confidence). {3.4.4, Box 3.4}, Current ecosystem services from the ocean are expected to be reduced at 1.5°C of global warming, with losses being even greater at 2°C of global warming (high confidence). Figure 2⇓ shows that among walking commuters, there were distinct dose-response trends for CVD incidence and mortality but not for other outcomes by weekly commuting distance. The scale and type of CDR deployment varies widely across 1.5°C pathways, with different consequences for achieving sustainable development objectives (high confidence). No pathway in the literature integrates or achieves all 17 SDGs (high confidence). The exposure variable was the mode of transport used (non-active, cycling, walking, or mixed) to commute to work. How are Potential Impacts on Ecosystems Assessed at 1.5°C versus Higher Levels of Warming? {4.3.1}, Electrification, hydrogen, bio-based feedstocks and substitution, and, in several cases, carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), would lead to the deep emissions reductions required in energy-intensive industries to limit warming to 1.5°C. The number of synergies between mitigation response options and sustainable development exceeds the number of trade- offs in energy demand and supply sectors; agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU); and for oceans (very high confidence). CACM, JPP, NS, and JMRG drafted the manuscript. Design Prospective population based study. We used UK Biobank, a large, prospective, population based cohort study, to investigate the association between different types of active commuting and incident CVD, cancer, and all cause mortality. Læs nyheder fra Presse her Implementation of this raised ambition would require enhanced institutional capabilities in all countries, including building the capability to utilize indigenous and local knowledge (medium evidence, high agreement). Shifts in dietary choices towards foods with lower emissions and requirements for land, along with reduced food loss and waste, could reduce emissions and increase adaptation options (high confidence). The ±400 GtCO2 geophysical uncertainty range surrounding a carbon budget translates into a variation of this timing of carbon neutrality of roughly ±15–20 years. Commuting undertaken totally or partially by bicycle was associated with a lower risk of a range of adverse health outcomes. The number of species projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range at 2°C global warming (18% of insects, 16% of plants, 8% of vertebrates) is projected to be reduced to 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates at 1.5°C warming (medium confidence). CDR is needed less in pathways with particularly strong emphasis on energy efficiency and low demand. Achieving the governance, finance and social support required to enable these synergies and to avoid trade-offs is often challenging, especially when addressing multiple objectives, and attempting appropriate sequencing and timing of interventions. Little shaver plays with regard to fresh left-hand twat be advisable for his boyfriend . Results 2430 participants died (496 were related to CVD and 1126 to cancer) over a median of 5.0 years (interquartile range 4.3-5.5) follow-up. Even if this is achieved, temperatures would only be expected to remain below the 1.5°C threshold if the actual geophysical response ends up being towards the low end of the currently estimated uncertainty range. Limiting cumulative emissions requires either reducing net global emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases to zero before the cumulative limit is reached, or net negative global emissions (anthropogenic removals) after the limit is exceeded. The regions with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming include: several high-latitude regions (e.g. Initiatives to encourage and support active commuting could reduce risk of death and the burden of important chronic conditions. This has important policy implications, suggesting that policies designed to affect a population level modal shift to more active modes of commuting, particularly cycle commuting (eg, cycle lanes, city bike hire, subsidised cycle purchase schemes, and increasing provision for cycles on public transport), present major opportunities for the improvement of public health.

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